The Drake Equation

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The Drake Equation is a bust- The article posted above from realclearscience.com sheds light on a reality that is rarely discussed; the Drake Equation is not really an equation- it is a guess. All the probabilities in the equation are unknown. It is often said, based on the Drake equation, that the possibilities of ET civilization are endless. They are in fact very small. When discussing NASA's Keppler Mission and it's discovery of planets, the vast possibilities are typically the object of the story. NASA's principle investigator for Keppler , William Borucki , put it this way- " There could be 10 billion civilizations or none. The evidence certainly is none." The possibilities of ET civilizations are NOT endless; planets must overcome many obstacles to be suitable for advanced life. Planets need to be in the "Goldilocks Zone" of a galaxy for livable temperature and gravitational factors. Most planets are not in the Goldilocks Zone. If you give an optimistic number to the planets that are in the Goldi Zone- say 30%- then the "endless possibility" is really only 30% probability. Most stars are M Dwarfs- much smaller than our sun; planets around these have "tidal locking"- one side faces the star. Take that % of planets out of the % of planets in the Goldilocks Zone- now the probability is even smaller. THIS IS HOW YOU CREATE THE REAL EQUATION for ET life out there. The planet called KEPPLER 22B and KEPPLER 62F are examples of a possibility. They are in the Goldilocks zone and orbit a sun like star. They represent the possibility- one that grows even smaller if those lack the water and atmospheric factors.